Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Rende - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Teodora Kostovic		Federica Urgesi

	1	2
	1.2	4.33	Watch
	1.18	4.2	Watch
	1.13	5.51	Watch
	1.19	4.36	Watch
	1.18	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.84)	4.58 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Teodora Kostovic
79.6%

Federica Urgesi
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Teodora Kostovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Teodora Kostovic's performance.

Federica Urgesi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-29.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Federica Urgesi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Teodora Kostovic than the current prediction. (-27.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Teodora Kostovic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (+27.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federica Urgesi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Teodora Kostovic - Federica Urgesi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kostovic is ranked WTA: 225. Urgesi is ranked WTA: 386.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Kostovic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Federica Urgesi - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.86%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Teodora Kostovic
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Teodora Kostovic - Tayisiya Morderger	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.09.25	Teodora Kostovic - Rada Zolotareva	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.09.25	Teodora Kostovic - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2 ✺
09.09.25	Selena Janicijevic - Teodora Kostovic	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Teodora Kostovic - Alja Senica	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWW
- Federica Urgesi
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Martina Colmegna - Federica Urgesi	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Federica Urgesi	2:0 ✺
15.09.25	Federica Urgesi - Cristina Diaz Adrover	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ipek Oz - Federica Urgesi	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.09.25	Federica Urgesi - Julia Avdeeva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWWL

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