Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Tolentino - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday


	Federica Urgesi		Cristina Diaz Adrover

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	2	1.75
			Watch
	1.82	1.92	Watch
	1.91	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.1)	1.82 ↑ (1.68)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federica Urgesi
48.8%

Cristina Diaz Adrover
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

56.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federica Urgesi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Cristina Diaz Adrover has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Federica Urgesi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cristina Diaz Adrover than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cristina Diaz Adrover could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Federica Urgesi - Cristina Diaz Adrover Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Urgesi will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Urgesi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Urgesi is ranked WTA: 398. Diaz Adrover is ranked WTA: 367.

Urgesi is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Diaz Adrover's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Diaz Adrover may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Ipek Oz - Federica Urgesi	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.09.25	Federica Urgesi - Julia Avdeeva	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Marine Szostak - Federica Urgesi	2:1 ✺
26.08.25	Jenny Duerst - Federica Urgesi	2:1 ✺
31.07.25	Federica Urgesi - Noemi Basiletti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLLL
- Cristina Diaz Adrover
ATP Challenger
14.09.25	Amina Anshba - Cristina Diaz Adrover	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.09.25	Cristina Diaz Adrover - Marine Szostak	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Cristina Diaz Adrover - Oana Gavrila	2:0 ✺
20.08.25	Cristina Diaz Adrover - Zuzanna Pawlikowska	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Cristina Diaz Adrover - Angelica Raggi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLWLL

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