Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Oeiras - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Tiago Cacao		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
			Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.85)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tiago Cacao
35.3%

Mathys Erhard
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tiago Cacao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tiago Cacao than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Tiago Cacao - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Cacao (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cacao (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cacao is ranked ATP: 883. Erhard is ranked ATP: 329.

Recent form of Cacao has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Erhard has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Erhard may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cacao won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tiago Cacao
ITF Tournaments
13.01.26	Tiago Cacao - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Tiago Cacao - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.11.25	Tiago Cacao - Cezar Cretu	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.11.25	Alastair Gray - Tiago Cacao	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Tiago Cacao - Tomas Curras Abasolo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLLW
- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
13.01.26	Mathys Erhard - Hynek Barton	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Stefan Kozlov - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Robert Strombachs - Mathys Erhard	1:2 ✺
27.11.25	Mirza Basic - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
25.11.25	Nino Ehrenschneider - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
25.11.20	Tiago Cacao - Mathys Erhard	2:1

Tiago Cacao - Mathys Erhard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide