Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 3, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday


	Stefan Kozlov		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.29	3.25	Watch
	1.3	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.3	3.21	Watch
	1.3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.36)	3.24 ↑ (2.85)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefan Kozlov
71.2%

Mathys Erhard
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefan Kozlov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefan Kozlov than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefan Kozlov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mathys Erhard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Stefan Kozlov - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kozlov is ranked ATP: 287. Erhard is ranked ATP: 328.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Kozlov is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefan Kozlov
ATP Challenger
06.01.26	Stefan Kozlov - Tyler Zink	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Stefan Kozlov	2:1 ✺
27.11.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Stefan Kozlov	0:2 ✺
25.11.25	Juan Bautista Torres - Stefan Kozlov	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Hady Habib - Stefan Kozlov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLWW?
- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
06.01.26	Robert Strombachs - Mathys Erhard	1:2 ✺
27.11.25	Mirza Basic - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
25.11.25	Nino Ehrenschneider - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
24.11.25	Alexandr Binda - Mathys Erhard	Canceled ✺
22.11.25	Jay Clarke - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLW?L

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