Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Rende - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday


	Tina Nadine Smith		Deborah Chiesa

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.28	Watch
	1.54	2.37	Watch
	1.59	2.27	Watch
	1.52	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.84)	2.34 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tina Nadine Smith
60.2%

Deborah Chiesa
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tina Nadine Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tina Nadine Smith's performance.

Deborah Chiesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deborah Chiesa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tina Nadine Smith than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tina Nadine Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deborah Chiesa than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deborah Chiesa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tina Nadine Smith - Deborah Chiesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Smith is ranked WTA: 281. Chiesa is ranked WTA: 667.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Chiesa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Tina Nadine Smith - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.14%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tina Nadine Smith
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Tina Nadine Smith - Amina Anshba	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Tina Nadine Smith - Darja Semenistaja	0:2 ✺
15.09.25	Tina Nadine Smith - Noma Akugue Noha	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Anouk Koevermans - Tina Nadine Smith	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Tamara Korpatsch - Tina Nadine Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLL
- Deborah Chiesa
ATP Challenger
28.09.25	Deborah Chiesa - Ekaterina Kazionova	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.09.25	Noemi Basiletti - Deborah Chiesa	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Deborah Chiesa - Leonie Kung	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Deborah Chiesa - Isabella Maria Serban	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Deborah Chiesa - Fabiola Marino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWLW

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