Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Monastir 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini		Stefano DAgostino

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Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
35%

Stefano DAgostino
65%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Stefano DAgostino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefano DAgostino than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Baragiola Mordini is ranked ATP: 1643. DAgostino is ranked ATP: 1044.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

DAgostino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

DAgostino could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that DAgostino will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
ITF Tournaments
02.01.26	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Bernardo Munk Mesa	2:0 ✺
01.01.26	Pierre Ngijol Carre - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	0:2 ✺
31.12.25	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Hugo Cardinaud	Cardinaud H. retired ✺
25.12.25	Felipe Virgili Berini - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	2:0 ✺
23.12.25	Yannik Kelm - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WW?LW
- Stefano DAgostino
ITF Tournaments
02.01.26	Dimitris Sakellaridis - Stefano DAgostino	0:2 ✺
01.01.26	Gabriele Bosio - Stefano DAgostino	0:2 ✺
31.12.25	Mustapha El Natour - Stefano DAgostino	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Stefano DAgostino - Mathis Bondaz	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Alex Martinez - Stefano DAgostino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWLW

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini - Stefano DAgostino