Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Toby Samuel		Daniel Rincon

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.39	2.75
	1.48	2.73
	1.4	2.74	Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.39	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.43)	2.71 ↑ (2.59)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toby Samuel
65.5%

Daniel Rincon
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Daniel Rincon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Toby Samuel - Daniel Rincon Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Samuel will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Rincon will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rincon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Samuel is ranked ATP: 244. Rincon is ranked ATP: 303.

Samuel is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Rincon has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rincon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Samuel could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Samuel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Toby Samuel - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.51%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Toby Samuel - Raul Brancaccio	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.03.26	Giles Hussey - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	Tiago Pereira - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Georgii Kravchenko - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Joao Domingues - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWW
- Daniel Rincon
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Daniel Rincon - Viktor Durasovic	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Clement Tabur - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Marc-Andrea Huesler - Daniel Rincon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.02.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	0:2

Toby Samuel - Daniel Rincon: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide