Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday


	Daniel Rincon		Toby Samuel

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.72
	2.1	1.65
	2.09	1.8
	2.04	1.7	Watch
	2	1.73
	2.03	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.42)	1.71 ↑ (1.49)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniel Rincon
45.6%

Toby Samuel
54.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Rincon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniel Rincon's performance.

Toby Samuel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toby Samuel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniel Rincon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toby Samuel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Rincon will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Samuel will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rincon: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rincon is ranked ATP: 299. Samuel is ranked ATP: 172.

Recent performances by Rincon have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samuel is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Samuel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Samuel might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Samuel will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Rincon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Rincon
ATP Challenger
04.04.26	Alex Martinez - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Sergio Callejon Hernando - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Miguel Damas - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Daniel Rincon - Frederico Ferreira Silva	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Daniel Rincon - Maxim Mrva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWL
- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
03.04.26	Lukas Neumayer - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Sumit Nagal - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Maxim Mrva - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Stefan Dostanic - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Robin Bertrand - Toby Samuel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	0:2
04.03.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Rincon	2:0
09.02.26	Daniel Rincon - Toby Samuel	0:2

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