Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Chisinau, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 May 2025, Tuesday


	Toby Samuel		Lilian Marmousez

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.18	1.62	Watch
	2.01	1.72	Watch
	2.24	1.67
	2.05	1.74	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.02	1.73	Watch
	2.01	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.69)	1.69 ↓ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toby Samuel
44.8%

Lilian Marmousez
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toby Samuel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toby Samuel's form might have worsened.

Lilian Marmousez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lilian Marmousez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toby Samuel than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toby Samuel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lilian Marmousez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Toby Samuel - Lilian Marmousez Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Samuel will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Marmousez will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marmousez: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Samuel is ranked ATP: 1352. Marmousez is ranked ATP: 421.

Samuel has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Marmousez is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Samuel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Marmousez will win today's game, with odds of 2.05.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toby Samuel
ATP Challenger
20.05.25	Toby Samuel - Martin Damm	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.05.25	Keegan Smith - Toby Samuel	2:1 ✺
29.04.25	Andres Martin - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.04.25	Giles Hussey - Toby Samuel	Samuel T. retired ✺
15.04.25	Aziz Dougaz - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLL?L
- Lilian Marmousez
ATP Challenger
26.05.25	Lilian Marmousez - Erik Arutiunian	2:0 ✺
25.05.25	Lilian Marmousez - David Eichenseher	2:0 ✺
20.05.25	Lilian Marmousez - Genaro Alberto Olivieri	1:2 ✺
19.05.25	Daniel Michalski - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Daniel Cukierman - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW

Toby Samuel - Lilian Marmousez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide