Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Toby Samuel		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.53	2.45
	1.68	2.17
	1.68	2.36
	1.63	2.22	Watch
	1.58	2.40
	1.64	2.46	Watch
	1.64	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.82)	2.32 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 38.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toby Samuel
58.7%

Tomas Machac
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toby Samuel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toby Samuel's performance.

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomas Machac might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Toby Samuel - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Samuel will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Machac will win (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samuel: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Samuel is ranked ATP: 110. Machac is ranked ATP: 58.

Samuel has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Machac may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Toby Samuel - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.94%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toby Samuel
ATP US Open
27.08.26	Toby Samuel - Christian Garin	Garin C. Retired ✺
26.08.26	Toby Samuel - Billy Harris	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Toby Samuel - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.26	Jeffrey John Wolf - Toby Samuel	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
29.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?WW?L
- Tomas Machac
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Mees Rottgering - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Tomas Machac - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
27.05.26	Tomas Machac - Alexander Zverev	0:3 ✺
24.05.26	Tomas Machac - Zizou Bergs	3:0 ✺
ATP Roma
09.05.26	Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev	Medvedev D. Walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLW?

Toby Samuel - Tomas Machac: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide