Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 11


	Tomas Machac		Daniil Medvedev

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.24	1.66
	2.25	1.7
	2.12	1.72	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.42	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.34)	1.65 ↑ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
42.3%

Daniil Medvedev
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Daniil Medvedev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Machac will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Medvedev will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machac: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Machac will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 41. Medvedev is ranked ATP: 9.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Machac may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Medvedev might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Machac won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Tomas Machac - Francisco Comesana	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.26	Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
16.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Tomas Machac	Machac T. Walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWL?
- Daniil Medvedev
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Fabian Marozsan	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Daniil Medvedev	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
01.06.24	Tomas Machac - Daniil Medvedev	1:3
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.22	Daniil Medvedev - Tomas Machac	2:0

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