Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday


	Tom Paris		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.46	1.49	Watch
	2.69	1.49
	2.39	1.52	Watch
	2.49	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.05)	1.5 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tom Paris
37.4%

Arthur Gea
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tom Paris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tom Paris's form might have worsened.

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arthur Gea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tom Paris than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tom Paris, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arthur Gea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Tom Paris - Arthur Gea Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Paris will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Gea will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Gea (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Paris is ranked ATP: 285. Gea is ranked ATP: 254.

Paris has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gea is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paris may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Gea will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Tom Paris - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.95%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tom Paris
ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Tom Paris - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Tom Paris - Leo Raquillet	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Tom Paris - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Tom Paris - Kenny De Schepper	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Tom Paris - Dan Added	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WWLLL
- Arthur Gea
ITF Tournaments
12.10.25	Arthur Gea - Igor Kudriashov	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Arthur Gea - Robin Bertrand	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Arthur Gea - Eric Vanshelboim	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Arthur Gea - Jorge Plans	2:0 ✺
08.10.25	Arthur Gea - Leo Deflandre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWW

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