Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday


	Tung-Lin Wu		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
	1.40	2.75	Watch
	1.40	2.70
	1.38	2.90
	1.46	2.86
	1.4	2.74	Watch
	1.39	2.75
	1.39	2.77	Watch
	1.40	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.35)	2.78 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tung-Lin Wu
66.4%

Luca Castelnuovo
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tung-Lin Wu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tung-Lin Wu than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Tung Lin Wu - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Wu is ranked ATP: 370. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 461.

Wu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castelnuovo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Wu is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Castelnuovo - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.76%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tung-Lin Wu
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Alexandr Binda - Tung-Lin Wu	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Fajing Sun - Tung-Lin Wu	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
21.08.26	Shunsuke Mitsui - Tung-Lin Wu	2:1 ✺
20.08.26	Hiroki Moriya - Tung-Lin Wu	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Taisei Ichikawa - Tung-Lin Wu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWW
- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Tsung-Hao Huang	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Matthew Dellavedova	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.08.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Kuan-Shou Chen	1:2 ✺
27.08.26	Yanki Erel - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WW?LW

Tung-Lin Wu - Luca Castelnuovo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide