Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zhangjiagang, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Matthew Dellavedova

	1	2
			Watch
	3.20	1.30
	2.49	1.47	Watch
	2.58	1.54
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.4	1.46
	2.59	1.44	Watch
	2.49	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (3.38)	1.45 ↑ (1.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
35.7%

Matthew Dellavedova
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Matthew Dellavedova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matthew Dellavedova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Luca Castelnuovo - Matthew Dellavedova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 455. Dellavedova is ranked ATP: 299.

Castelnuovo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dellavedova is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dellavedova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Dellavedova is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Matthew Dellavedova - the odds 1.27 are the expected chance of winning is 72.71%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
28.08.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Kuan-Shou Chen	1:2 ✺
27.08.26	Yanki Erel - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Hiromasa Koyama - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Moerani Bouzige - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.07.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Alexander Vasilev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWL
- Matthew Dellavedova
ITF Tournaments
29.08.26	Kuan-Shou Chen - Matthew Dellavedova	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Matthew Dellavedova - Kasidit Samrej	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Kristjan Tamm - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Tai Sach - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
25.08.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
09.04.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Matthew Dellavedova	2:1

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