Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday


	Yanki Erel		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.19	4.00
	1.25	3.55
	1.22	4.36
	1.21	3.84	Watch
	1.2	4.3
	1.29	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.34)	3.87 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yanki Erel
75.9%

Luca Castelnuovo
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.7%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yanki Erel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yanki Erel's performance.

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castelnuovo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yanki Erel than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yanki Erel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castelnuovo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Yanki Erel - Luca Castelnuovo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Erel is ranked ATP: 303. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 455.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yanki Erel
ITF Tournaments
26.08.26	Yanki Erel - Hikaru Shiraishi	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Yanki Erel - Kokoro Isomura	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.08.26	Gijs Brouwer - Yanki Erel	Erel Y. Retired ✺
04.08.26	Denis Yevseyev - Yanki Erel	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	Paul Inchauspe - Yanki Erel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WW?WL
- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
26.08.26	Hiromasa Koyama - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Moerani Bouzige - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.07.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Alexander Vasilev	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Antoine Ghibaudo	0:2 ✺
09.07.26	Max Basing - Luca Castelnuovo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLL

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