Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Bali, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 August 2025, Tuesday


	Yanki Erel		Hiroki Moriya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.85	1.83
			Watch
	1.89	1.84
	1.97	1.71	Watch
	2	1.73
	2.02	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2)	1.77 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yanki Erel
47.6%

Hiroki Moriya
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yanki Erel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yanki Erel than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (-3%)

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Preview

Erel is ranked ATP: 578. Moriya is ranked ATP: 365.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Erel won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yanki Erel
ITF Tournaments
23.07.25	Yanki Erel - Igor Kudriashov	1:2 ✺
19.07.25	Aziz Dougaz - Yanki Erel	Erel Y. walkover ✺
18.07.25	Yanki Erel - Loan Lestir	2:0 ✺
17.07.25	Yanki Erel - Niccolo Baroni	2:0 ✺
15.07.25	Yanki Erel - Yassine Dlimi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 L?WWW
- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
20.07.25	Tsung-Hao Huang - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
14.07.25	Alfredo Perez - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Dan Martin - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
09.07.25	Hiroki Moriya - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
08.07.25	Hiroki Moriya - Keegan Rice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
10.06.23	Hiroki Moriya - Yanki Erel	1:2
ATP Challenger
24.11.21	Yanki Erel - Hiroki Moriya	2:1

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