Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pozoblanco, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 July 2026, Tuesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Antoine Ghibaudo

	1	2
			Watch
	2.40	1.50
	2.45	1.52	Watch
	2.59	1.55
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.45	1.53	Watch
	2.45	1.49	Watch
	2.47	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.9)	1.51 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
38%

Antoine Ghibaudo
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

72.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Antoine Ghibaudo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Antoine Ghibaudo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Antoine Ghibaudo than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Antoine Ghibaudo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Antoine Ghibaudo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 410. Ghibaudo is ranked ATP: 298.

Recent performances by Castelnuovo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ghibaudo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ghibaudo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
09.07.26	Max Basing - Luca Castelnuovo	2:1 ✺
07.07.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
28.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Gabriel Ghetu	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Franco Agamenone	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Faris Zakaryia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLW
- Antoine Ghibaudo
ATP Challenger
06.07.26	Lui Maxted - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:0 ✺
ATP Mallorca
21.06.26	Adam Walton - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.06.26	Oliver Okonkwo - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	James Watt - Antoine Ghibaudo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLL

Luca Castelnuovo - Antoine Ghibaudo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide