Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Segovia - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 19 July 2026, Sunday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Alexander Vasilev

	1	2
			Watch
	2.10	1.62
	2.1	1.65
	2.15	1.69
	2.07	1.67	Watch
	2.01	1.77	Watch
	2.06	1.68	Watch
	2.1	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.39)	1.68 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
44.6%

Alexander Vasilev
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Alexander Vasilev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alexander Vasilev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Vasilev than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alexander Vasilev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Alexander Vasilev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 435. Vasilev is ranked ATP: 572.

Recent form of Castelnuovo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Vasilev has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vasilev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
14.07.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Antoine Ghibaudo	0:2 ✺
09.07.26	Max Basing - Luca Castelnuovo	2:1 ✺
07.07.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
28.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Gabriel Ghetu	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Franco Agamenone	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLL
- Alexander Vasilev
ATP Challenger
02.07.26	Eliakim Coulibaly - Alexander Vasilev	2:0 ✺
30.06.26	Alexander Vasilev - Kai Wehnelt	2:1 ✺
24.06.26	Sandro Kopp - Alexander Vasilev	2:0 ✺
23.06.26	Alexander Vasilev - Niels Visker	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	Alexander Vasilev - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWLWL

Luca Castelnuovo - Alexander Vasilev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide