Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: TOKYO (JAPAN), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 17 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Discovery+, Eurosport 1
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Discovery+, Eurosport 1
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Yosuke Watanuki		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.8	1.42
	2.8	1.42
	2.73	1.45
	2.97	1.44
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.69	1.47	Watch
	2.6	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (2.78)	1.46 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
34.6%

Casper Ruud
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60.6%	0%	39.4%

Yosuke Watanuki - Casper Ruud Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Watanuki will win (votes: 20 - 60.6%). Ruud will win (votes: 13 - 39.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watanuki: 43.9% – 77.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

Watanuki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ruud will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Shanghai
07.10.23	Yosuke Watanuki - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:2 ✺
05.10.23	Yosuke Watanuki - Juncheng Shang	2:1 ✺
ATP Asian Games
30.09.23	Zhizhen Zhang - Yosuke Watanuki	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Seong Chan Hong - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
27.09.23	Denis Yevseyev - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLWW
- Casper Ruud
ATP Shanghai
10.10.23	Casper Ruud - Fabian Marozsan	1:2 ✺
08.10.23	Casper Ruud - Christopher Eubanks	2:0 ✺
06.10.23	Casper Ruud - Yoshihito Nishioka	2:0 ✺
ATP Beijing
02.10.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
01.10.23	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWLW

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