Match Info

Nations League

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Osaka Municipal Central Gymnasium (Osaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Turkey	S Sport
Ukraine	Suspilne Sport


	Japan		Italy

	1	2
	2	1.73
	2.05	1.65
	2.11	1.74
	2.13	1.68	Watch
	2.09	1.72
	2.2	1.73	Watch
	2.09	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.83)	1.71 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 187.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
44.9%

Italy
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Japan's form might have worsened.

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Italy's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Japan than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Italy than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Japan - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Japan will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Italy will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Japan: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Lineups


21. Eiro M.	7. Balaso F.
23. Evbade-Dan L. I.	12. Bottolo M.
3. Fukatsu H.	23. Bovolenta A.
14. Ishikawa Y. (C)	14. Galassi G.
15. Kai M.	6. Giannelli S. (C)
4. Miyaura K.	4. Laurenzano G.
1. Nishida Y.	15. Lavia D.
17. Nishimoto K.	20. Mati P.
13. Ogawa T.	17. Porro L.
5. Otsuka T.	16. Romano Y.
12. Takahashi R.	19. Russo R.
11. Tomita S.	18. Sanguinetti G.
20. Yamamoto T.	9. Sani F.
6. Yamauchi A.	8. Sbertoli R.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 1.

Japan is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Italy's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Japan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Italy is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Japan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:38. (average 1.6:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan volleyball
Nations League Volleyball
28.06.26	France - Japan	2:3 ✺
27.06.26	USA - Japan	2:3 ✺
26.06.26	Iran - Japan	2:3 ✺
24.06.26	Serbia - Japan	1:3 ✺
14.06.26	Slovenia - Japan	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWWW
- Italy volleyball
Friendly International Volleyball
05.07.26	Italy - Argentina	3:1 ✺
Nations League Volleyball Women
28.06.26	Slovenia - Italy	1:3 ✺
Nations League Volleyball
26.06.26	Brazil - Italy	1:3 ✺
25.06.26	Ukraine - Italy	3:0 ✺
24.06.26	Bulgaria - Italy	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Olympic Games - Volleyball
05.08.24	Italy - Japan	3:2
Nations League Volleyball
25.05.24	Japan - Italy	1:3
23.07.23	Japan - Italy	3:2
08.07.23	Japan - Italy	1:3
Friendly International Volleyball
20.08.22	Italy - Japan	3:1
Nations League Volleyball
24.06.22	Japan - Italy	3:2
Olympic Games - Volleyball
28.07.21	Japan - Italy	1:3

Japan - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide