What is the expert prediction for Italy vs Greece?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Italy vs Greece. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Italy vs Greece Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - Division 1 - Second stage

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Greece	ERT 2


	Italy		Greece

	1	X	2
	2.38	6.62	1.96
	2.3	6.5	1.92	Watch
	2.24	9.3	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.53)	7.47 ↑ (6.96)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
40.3%

Draw
12.4%

Greece
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

13.5%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Greece has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 1.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Italy won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 192:185. (average 9.6:9.3).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy water polo
World Cup Water Polo
08.04.26	Italy - Croatia	13:11 ✺
07.04.26	USA - Italy	8:15 ✺
06.04.26	Italy - Spain	12:10 ✺
European Championship Water Polo
25.01.26	Italy - Greece	5:12 ✺
23.01.26	Serbia - Italy	17:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLL
- Greece water polo
World Cup Water Polo
08.04.26	Netherlands - Greece	11:14 ✺
07.04.26	Greece - Serbia	16:15 ✺
06.04.26	Hungary - Greece	13:12 ✺
European Championship Water Polo
25.01.26	Italy - Greece	5:12 ✺
23.01.26	Greece - Hungary	12:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Championship Water Polo
25.01.26	Italy - Greece	5:12
19.01.26	Greece - Italy	15:13
World Championship Water Polo
20.07.25	Italy - Greece	11:17
Olympic Games - Water polo
05.08.24	Greece - Italy	9:8
Friendly International Water Polo
04.07.24	Italy - Greece	13:12
World Championship Water Polo
13.02.24	Greece - Italy	10:11
European Championship Water Polo
06.01.24	Greece - Italy	8:13

Italy - Greece: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide