Match Info

NFL - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	DAZN
Croatia	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN
Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Norway	DAZN
Poland	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN Portugal
Romania	DAZN
Serbia	DAZN
Slovenia	DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Thailand	DAZN
Turkey	DAZN Turkiye
Ukraine	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
World	NFL Game Pass


	Chicago Bears		Detroit Lions

	1	2
	1.59	2.45	Watch
	1.53	2.55
	1.52	2.47	Watch
	1.51	2.53	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.57	2.42
	1.58	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.78)	2.48 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chicago Bears
61.6%

Detroit Lions
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chicago Bears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chicago Bears's performance.

Detroit Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Detroit Lions might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Bears than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chicago Bears that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Detroit Lions than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Detroit Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	0%	18.7%

Chicago Bears - Detroit Lions Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Chicago (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Detroit (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3, OT - Detroit (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chicago Bears will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Chicago (votes: 4 - 40%). Detroit (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 3)
06:21, Bates J. (Field Goal),
2nd Quarter (0 - 10)
03:28, Bates J. (Field Goal),
10:20, Gibbs J. (Touchdown),
10:20, Bates J. (Extra Point),
14:57, Bates J. (Missed Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (0 - 3)
12:46, Bates J. (Field Goal),
4th Quarter (16 - 3)
00:44, Walker J. (Touchdown),
00:44, Monangai K. (Two-Point Conversion),
09:35, Loveland C. (Touchdown),
09:35, Kmet C. (Two-Point Conversion),
14:58, Bates J. (Field Goal),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago won 1.

In recent matches, Chicago has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Detroit is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chicago may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chicago is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Detroit: Awosika K. (Inactive) Glasgow G. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chicago won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 438:486. (average 21.9:24.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chicago won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 244:226. (average 24.4:22.6).

Outrights of NFL for now

Chicago Bears: 4.4% Detroit Lions: 3.22%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chicago Bears
NFL
28.12.25	San Francisco 49ers - Chicago Bears	42:38 ✺
20.12.25	Chicago Bears - Green Bay Packers	22:16 OT ✺
14.12.25	Chicago Bears - Cleveland Browns	31:3 ✺
07.12.25	Green Bay Packers - Chicago Bears	28:21 ✺
28.11.25	Philadelphia Eagles - Chicago Bears	15:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWLW
- Detroit Lions
NFL
25.12.25	Minnesota Vikings - Detroit Lions	23:10 ✺
21.12.25	Detroit Lions - Pittsburgh Steelers	24:29 ✺
14.12.25	Los Angeles Rams - Detroit Lions	41:34 ✺
04.12.25	Detroit Lions - Dallas Cowboys	44:30 ✺
27.11.25	Detroit Lions - Green Bay Packers	24:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
14.09.25	Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears	52:21
22.12.24	Chicago Bears - Detroit Lions	17:34
28.11.24	Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears	23:20
10.12.23	Chicago Bears - Detroit Lions	28:13
19.11.23	Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears	31:26
01.01.23	Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears	41:10
13.11.22	Chicago Bears - Detroit Lions	30:31

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