Match Info

NFL - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, RTL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Arena 4
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	DAZN 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
World	NFL Game Pass


	Miami Dolphins		Washington Commanders

	1	2
	1.71	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.18	Watch
	1.74	2.21
	1.54	2.40	Watch
	2.75	1.4
	1.71	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.03)	2.1 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami Dolphins
53.1%

Washington Commanders
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami Dolphins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miami Dolphins's performance.

Washington Commanders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Washington Commanders might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Dolphins than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Washington Commanders than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Miami Dolphins - Washington Commanders Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Washington will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Miami: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5, OT - Washington (2.43) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 47.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Washington (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (3 - 3)
04:25, Patterson R. (Field Goal),
12:24, Gay M. (Field Goal),
2nd Quarter (3 - 3)
03:33, Patterson R. (Field Goal),
07:25, Gay M. (Missed Field Goal),
14:57, Gay M. (Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (0 - 7)
03:36, Samuel D. (Touchdown),
03:36, Gay M. (Extra Point),
4th Quarter (7 - 0)
02:24, Gordon O. (Touchdown),
02:24, Patterson R. (Extra Point),
14:45, Gay M. (Missed Field Goal),
Overtime (3 - 0)
02:23, Patterson R. (Field Goal),

Preview

Neutral location - Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12 and 14)

Recent performances by Miami have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Washington is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Washington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Miami won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 91:48. (average 22.8:12).

Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 29:23. (average 14.5:11.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami Dolphins
NFL
09.11.25	Miami Dolphins - Buffalo Bills	30:13 ✺
30.10.25	Miami Dolphins - Baltimore Ravens	6:28 ✺
26.10.25	Atlanta Falcons - Miami Dolphins	10:34 ✺
19.10.25	Cleveland Browns - Miami Dolphins	31:6 ✺
12.10.25	Miami Dolphins - Los Angeles Chargers	27:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLWLL
- Washington Commanders
NFL
09.11.25	Washington Commanders - Detroit Lions	22:44 ✺
02.11.25	Washington Commanders - Seattle Seahawks	14:38 ✺
27.10.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Washington Commanders	28:7 ✺
19.10.25	Dallas Cowboys - Washington Commanders	44:22 ✺
13.10.25	Washington Commanders - Chicago Bears	24:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
17.08.24	Miami Dolphins - Washington Commanders	13:6
03.12.23	Washington Commanders - Miami Dolphins	15:45
13.10.19	Miami Dolphins - Washington Commanders	16:17
13.09.15	Washington Commanders - Miami Dolphins	10:17

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