Match Info

NFL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV
Croatia	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN, Nova Sport 5
Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN, Ruutu+
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9, DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Norway	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN Portugal
Romania	DAZN
Serbia	DAZN
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2, DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Thailand	DAZN
Turkey	DAZN Turkiye
Ukraine	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
World	NFL Game Pass


	New England Patriots		Los Angeles Chargers

	1	2
	1.53	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.56	Watch
	1.51	2.53	Watch
	1.5	2.6
	1.53	2.6
	1.5	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.46)	2.59 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New England Patriots
63.2%

Los Angeles Chargers
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New England Patriots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Los Angeles Chargers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New England Patriots than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Los Angeles Chargers than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.3%	0%	22.7%

New England Patriots - Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. New England will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). LA Chargers will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for New England: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. New England (votes: 8 - 57.1%). LA Chargers (votes: 6 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 46, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5, OT - LA Chargers (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 43, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3, OT - New England (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. New England (votes: 9 - 52.9%). LA Chargers (votes: 8 - 47.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:21

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (0 - 0)
2nd Quarter (6 - 3)
01:28, Borregales A. (Field Goal),
08:08, Dicker C. (Field Goal),
14:58, Borregales A. (Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (3 - 0)
13:26, Borregales A. (Field Goal),
4th Quarter (7 - 0)
05:15, Henry H. (Touchdown),
05:15, Borregales A. (Extra Point),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New England won 3.

New England is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

LA Chargers has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

LA Chargers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

New England will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in New England: DeVito T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in New England: Mapu M. (Neck Injury) Moses M. (Foot Injury)

We predict that New England will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, New England won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 164:125. (average 23.4:17.9).

Including home matches between the teams, New England won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 69:87. (average 17.3:21.8).

Outrights of NFL for now

New England Patriots: 2.7% Los Angeles Chargers: 0.55%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New England Patriots
NFL
04.01.26	New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins	38:10 ✺
28.12.25	New York Jets - New England Patriots	10:42 ✺
21.12.25	Baltimore Ravens - New England Patriots	24:28 ✺
14.12.25	New England Patriots - Buffalo Bills	31:35 ✺
01.12.25	New England Patriots - New York Giants	33:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLW
- Los Angeles Chargers
NFL
04.01.26	Denver Broncos - Los Angeles Chargers	19:3 ✺
27.12.25	Los Angeles Chargers - Houston Texans	16:20 ✺
21.12.25	Dallas Cowboys - Los Angeles Chargers	17:34 ✺
14.12.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Los Angeles Chargers	13:16 ✺
08.12.25	Los Angeles Chargers - Philadelphia Eagles	22:19 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

NFL
28.12.24	New England Patriots - Los Angeles Chargers	7:40
03.12.23	New England Patriots - Los Angeles Chargers	0:6
31.10.21	Los Angeles Chargers - New England Patriots	24:27
06.12.20	Los Angeles Chargers - New England Patriots	0:45
13.01.19	New England Patriots - Los Angeles Chargers	41:28
29.10.17	New England Patriots - Los Angeles Chargers	21:13
07.12.14	Los Angeles Chargers - New England Patriots	14:23

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