Match Info

SANFL - Round 11

Date: 27 June 2025, Friday

Location: Hickinbotham Oval (Noarlunga Downs)


	South Adelaide		Port Adelaide

	1	2
	3.5	1.3
	3.75	1.25
	3.2	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.35)	1.29 ↓ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 140.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-20)

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Adelaide
27%

Port Adelaide
73%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28%

72%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

78.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Adelaide has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Port Adelaide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Adelaide than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Adelaide that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Adelaide than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Port Adelaide could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

South Adelaide - Port Adelaide Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 60:80

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (16 - 14)
2nd Quarter (8 - 15)
3rd Quarter (33 - 12)
4th Quarter (8 - 17)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Adelaide won 2.

South Adelaide is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Port Adelaide has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

South Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Port Adelaide has had a series of home games.

In this match, Port Adelaide is a strong favorite.

We predict that Port Adelaide will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, South Adelaide won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 1611:1624. (average 84.8:85.5).

Including home matches between the teams, South Adelaide won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 756:731. (average 84:81.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Adelaide FC
SANFL
22.06.25	Norwood - South Adelaide	84:32 ✺
07.06.25	South Adelaide - Adelaide	50:51 ✺
31.05.25	South Adelaide - Glenelg	51:119 ✺
24.05.25	Woodville-West Torrens - South Adelaide	94:59 ✺
11.05.25	South Adelaide - Norwood	51:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Port Adelaide FC
SANFL
14.06.25	Port Adelaide - Woodville-West Torrens	74:59 ✺
08.06.25	Port Adelaide - West Adelaide	120:57 ✺
24.05.25	Port Adelaide - North Adelaide	72:70 ✺
10.05.25	Port Adelaide - Adelaide	43:88 ✺
02.05.25	Woodville-West Torrens - Port Adelaide	77:52 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

SANFL
18.04.25	Port Adelaide - South Adelaide	104:83
21.07.24	Port Adelaide - South Adelaide	80:95
25.05.24	South Adelaide - Port Adelaide	117:44
18.08.23	South Adelaide - Port Adelaide	97:97
14.05.23	Port Adelaide - South Adelaide	102:74
14.08.22	South Adelaide - Port Adelaide	69:60
09.04.22	Port Adelaide - South Adelaide	101:111

South Adelaide - Port Adelaide: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide