Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Play Offs - Final

Date: 22 June 2026, Monday

Location: Aguada (Montevideo)


	Aguada		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.98	1.72
	2.05	1.60
	2.21	1.62
	2.14	1.61	Watch
	2.05	1.70
	2.10	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.16)	1.65 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 166.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aguada
44.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aguada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Pereiras F.	23. Hogan S.
23. Santos L.	9. Jau
8. Sims D.	8. Pomoli N.
4. Vidal S.	10. Serres E. (C)
2. Williams J.	25. Vescovi S.
Substitutes
33. Acuna V.	22. Bavosi F.
14. Gentile A.	35. Calimares S.
3. Osimani J.	21. Heilmann C.
9. Ramirez I.	15. Lema N.
10. Rodriguez J.	19. Quinones L.
13. Santiso J. (C)	14. Rodriguez J.
24. Zuvich A.	42. Rojas M.
Coaches
. Taboada L.	. Garcia L.

Preview

Penarol (Uruguay) leads series 3-2. Sixth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Peñarol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aguada won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1670:1665. (average 83.5:83.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aguada won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 686:627. (average 85.8:78.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
19.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	80:71 ✺
16.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	92:81 ✺
12.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	78:71 ✺
09.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	89:84 ✺
03.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	99:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLL
- Peñarol de Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
19.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	80:71 ✺
16.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	92:81 ✺
12.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	78:71 ✺
09.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	89:84 ✺
03.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	99:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
19.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	80:71
16.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	92:81
12.06.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	78:71
09.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	89:84
03.06.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	99:82
17.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	103:95
09.03.26	Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo	86:80

Aguada - Peñarol de Montevideo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide