Match Info

Euroleague - Round 16

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Fernando Buesa Arena (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Kowalski M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	VOOsport World 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Baskonia		AS Monaco Basket

	1	2
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.52
	2.65	1.51
	2.57	1.56	Watch
	2.5	1.47
	2.67	1.51	Watch
	2.6	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (3)	1.51 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 177.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baskonia
36.9%

AS Monaco Basket
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baskonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Baskonia's performance.

AS Monaco Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AS Monaco Basket might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baskonia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Baskonia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AS Monaco Basket than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AS Monaco Basket could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Baskonia - AS Monaco Basket Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Baskonia will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Monaco will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baskonia: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 181.5, OT - under (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Baskonia will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:92

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Diop K.	4. Blossomgame J.
11. Forrest T.	11. Diallo A.
0. Howard M.	55. James M.
7. Kurucs R.	0. Okobo E.
17. Radzevicius G.	10. Theis D.
Substitutes
1. Diakite M.	23. Begarin J.
25. Frisch C.	13. Hayes K.
9. Luwawu-Cabarrot T.	5. Makoundou Y.
5. Omoruyi E.	33. Mirotic N.
2. Simmons K.	32. Strazel M.
10. Spagnolo M.	22. Tarpey T.
4. Villar R.
Coaches
. Galbiati P.	. Spanoulis V.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baskonia won 0.

Recent performances by Baskonia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Monaco is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Monaco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Monaco has had a series of home games.

Monaco will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Baskonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 631:674. (average 78.9:84.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Baskonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 321:332. (average 80.3:83).

Last Results with these Odds

AS Monaco Basket - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.18%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Saski Baskonia
Euroleague
11.12.25	Real Madrid - Baskonia	94:87 ✺
Spanish ACB League
07.12.25	Baskonia - Valencia	89:91 ✺
Euroleague
05.12.25	Baskonia - Olimpia Milano	88:78 ✺
25.11.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Baskonia	82:67 ✺
Spanish ACB League
23.11.25	Baskonia - Bilbao Basket	110:91 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLW
- AS Monaco Basket
French LNB
14.12.25	AS Monaco Basket - Strasbourg	88:74 ✺
Euroleague
12.12.25	AS Monaco Basket - Fenerbahçe	86:92 ✺
French LNB
06.12.25	Dijon - AS Monaco Basket	86:99 ✺
Euroleague
04.12.25	AS Monaco Basket - Paris	125:104 ✺
French Cup Basketball
02.12.25	AS Monaco Basket - Paris	109:103 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
05.02.25	AS Monaco Basket - Baskonia	92:85
14.11.24	Baskonia - AS Monaco Basket	75:87
09.01.24	AS Monaco Basket - Baskonia	93:83
24.11.23	Baskonia - AS Monaco Basket	75:77
10.03.23	Baskonia - AS Monaco Basket	93:102
18.11.22	AS Monaco Basket - Baskonia	79:74
25.03.22	AS Monaco Basket - Baskonia	78:68

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