The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Defensor Sporting 30%
Nacional 70%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.4%
59.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.3%
56.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Defensor Sporting's form might have worsened.
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+13.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensor Sporting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-13.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Defensor Sporting - Nacional Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:89
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
43. Colmenares N.
33. Barrera B.
1. Rudd V.
4. Feldeine J.
77. Soto F. (C)
23. Oglivie E.
15. Terra F.
10. Parodi L.
3. Weaver E.
24. Zinaich C.
Substitutes
9. Antunes M.
8. Cabot M.
45. Bianchi M.
51. Espindola G.
7. Cuervo M.
20. Gomez P.
11. Gomez B.
2. Imas L.
23. MacMullen M.
3. Mendez A.
00. Metzger T.
21. Prieto P. (C)
13. Zubiaurre M.
22. Superi E.
Coaches
. Brea G.
. Ponce A.
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 2.
Defensor has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Nacional is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Nacional is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 1330:1493. (average 66.5:74.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Defensor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 702:748. (average 70.2:74.8).
Watch
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Colmenares N. 
Barrera B. 
Rudd V. 
Feldeine J. 
Oglivie E. 
Zinaich C. 
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