Match Info

Korisliiga - Winners stage - Round 28

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Tapiolan Liikuntahalli (Espoo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	Espoon Honka		Helsinki Seagulls

	1	2
			Watch
	1.47	2.55
	1.49	2.61
	1.5	2.43	Watch
	1.44	2.5
	1.47	2.59
	1.47	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.76)	2.54 ↑ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 178.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Espoon Honka
63.3%

Helsinki Seagulls
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

48%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espoon Honka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Espoon Honka's performance.

Helsinki Seagulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Helsinki Seagulls might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espoon Honka than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Espoon Honka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Helsinki Seagulls than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Helsinki Seagulls could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Espoon Honka - Helsinki Seagulls Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
3. Donald T.	10. Heinonen O.
7. Ferguson A.	1. Henry J.
35. Kelly I.	2. Niemi T.
10. Korhonen R.	4. Rougeau R. (C)
2. Peltoniemi A.	47. Waxlax R.
Substitutes
12. Eerikinharju E.	0. Chukwuma C.
33. Gonzalvez D. (C)	25. Hervola L.
1. Kallio L.	16. Kaivos J.
5. Laavainen A.	55. Keeling C.
8. Rissanen M.	40. Kilpinen J.
11. Ulander V.	23. Pietrzyk M.
14. Uotila E.
Coaches
. Heinonen A.	. Saukkola T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Honka won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Honka won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 877:989. (average 79.7:89.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Honka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 423:452. (average 84.6:90.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
1	Honka	3	3	0	303:291	6
5	Helsinki Seagulls	4	2	2	310:316	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Espoon Honka
Finnish Korisliiga
17.02.26	Espoon Honka - Kauhajoen Karhu	93:85 ✺
14.02.26	Korihait - Espoon Honka	107:102 ✺
11.02.26	Salon Vilpas - Espoon Honka	98:94 ✺
03.02.26	Espoon Honka - KTP Kotka Basket	93:98 ✺
30.01.26	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	98:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLL
- Helsinki Seagulls
Finnish Korisliiga
17.02.26	Helsinki Seagulls - Salon Vilpas	86:97 ✺
14.02.26	Kauhajoen Karhu - Helsinki Seagulls	82:79 ✺
10.02.26	KTP Kotka Basket - Helsinki Seagulls	79:73 ✺
04.02.26	Helsinki Seagulls - Korihait	88:90 ✺
30.01.26	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	98:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Korisliiga
30.01.26	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	98:82
15.01.26	Espoon Honka - Helsinki Seagulls	100:87
07.11.25	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	82:91
07.01.25	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	96:80
08.11.24	Espoon Honka - Helsinki Seagulls	78:101
30.12.22	Espoon Honka - Helsinki Seagulls	78:104
01.11.22	Helsinki Seagulls - Espoon Honka	82:60

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