Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 5

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Xiaomi Arena (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 2
Czech-republic	CT sport Plus
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Italy	DAZN Italia
Portugal	RTP 1
Serbia	SportKlub 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Court Side 1891


	Estonia		Portugal

	1	2
	1.54	2.55	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.6	2.41	Watch
	1.59	2.42
	1.58	2.30	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.58	2.52
	2.02	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.02)	2.29 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 148.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estonia
58%

Portugal
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

52.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estonia's performance.

Portugal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portugal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estonia than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estonia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugal than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portugal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Estonia - Portugal Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Estonia will win (votes: 14 - 53.8%). Portugal will win (votes: 12 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estonia: 34.6% – 73%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Estonia (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Portugal (votes: 6 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6.5, OT - Portugal (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5, OT - Estonia (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 154.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 145.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Estonia (votes: 13 - 65%). Portugal (votes: 7 - 35%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 76:73

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Joesaar J. Dziki Warszawa	0. Brito D. Ourense
34. Konontsuk A. Oldenburg	11. Queiroz M. (C) FC Porto
77. Kullamae K. (C) Bilbao	88. Queta N. Boston Celtics
2. Raieste S. Saski Baskonia	9. Ventura D. Sporting CP
9. Tass M. Oostende	5. Williams T. CSM Oradea
Substitutes
0. Drell H. Tenerife	6. Amarante F. Oviedo
13. Hermet K. BC Kalev/Cramo	13. Gameiro D. Benfica
7. Jurkatamm M. Avellino Basket	28. Lisboa R.
25. Riismaa J. Cantu	14. Relvao D. Benfica
1. Rosenthal M. Ostrow Wielkopolski	29. Sa C.
3. Treier K. Basket Napoli	25. Sa N. Galomar
	2. Voytso V. Estela
Coaches
. Rannula H.	. Gomes M.

Preview

Estonia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portugal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Estonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estonia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 383:327. (average 76.6:65.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estonia basketball
EuroBasket
01.09.25	Estonia - Turkey	64:84 ✺
30.08.25	Czech Republic - Estonia	75:89 ✺
29.08.25	Estonia - Latvia	70:72 ✺
27.08.25	Serbia - Estonia	98:64 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
22.08.25	Estonia - Great Britain	62:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLL
- Portugal basketball
EuroBasket
01.09.25	Portugal - Latvia	62:78 ✺
30.08.25	Turkey - Portugal	95:54 ✺
29.08.25	Portugal - Serbia	69:80 ✺
27.08.25	Czech Republic - Portugal	50:62 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
16.08.25	Portugal - Sweden	78:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
14.07.17	Portugal - Estonia	60:74
EuroBasket
14.09.16	Estonia - Portugal	82:63
03.09.16	Portugal - Estonia	68:76
13.08.13	Portugal - Estonia	64:85
04.08.13	Estonia - Portugal	66:72

Estonia - Portugal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide