Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 4

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: Nokia Arena (Tampere)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Lithuania	TV3
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, SportKlub 1
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	SVT Play
World	Court Side 1891


	Finland		Lithuania

	1	2
	2.25	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.24	1.68	Watch
	2.25	1.69
	1.87	1.87	Watch
	2.38	1.61
	2.4	1.63	Watch
	2.9	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.9)	1.66 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 175.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Finland
41.7%

Lithuania
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

63.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Finland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Finland's performance.

Lithuania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lithuania might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finland than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lithuania than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	0%	28.3%

Finland - Lithuania Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Finland will win (votes: 33 - 73.3%). Lithuania will win (votes: 12 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Finland: 60.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 166.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Finland (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5.5, OT - Lithuania (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Finland will win (18 of 24 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Finland (votes: 19 - 73.1%). Lithuania (votes: 7 - 26.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:90

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Jantunen M. Fenerbahce	1. Blazevic M. BC Wolves
23. Markkanen L. Utah Jazz	13. Jokubaitis R. Maccabi Tel Aviv
21. Maxhuni E. Gravelines-Dunkerque	2. Normantas M. BC Rytas
9. Salin S. (C) Estudiantes	91. Sirvydis D. Zalgiris Kaunas
19. Valtonen E. Fundacion Granada	10. Tubelis A. Zalgiris Kaunas
Substitutes
34. Grandison J. PAOK	15. Birutis L. Zalgiris Kaunas
30. Gustavson A. Karhu Basket	31. Giedraitis R. Crvena zvezda
1. Little M. UC Santa Barbara	7. Radzevicius G. BC Rytas
20. Madsen A. Forca Lleida	43. Sargiunas I. BC Rytas
24. Muurinen M.	8. Sedekerskis T. Saski Baskonia
13. Nkamhoua O. Varese	17. Valanciunas J. (C) Denver Nuggets
35. Seppala I. KTE-Duna	3. Velicka A. Braunschweig
Coaches
. Tuovi L.	. Kurtinaitis R.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Finland won 1.

Finland has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lithuania's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lithuania may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lithuania will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Finland won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 674:822. (average 67.4:82.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Finland basketball
EuroBasket
30.08.25	Montenegro - Finland	65:85 ✺
29.08.25	Finland - Great Britain	109:79 ✺
27.08.25	Sweden - Finland	90:93 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
21.08.25	Finland - Poland	106:87 ✺
17.08.25	Poland - Finland	88:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW
- Lithuania basketball
EuroBasket
30.08.25	Lithuania - Germany	88:107 ✺
29.08.25	Lithuania - Montenegro	94:67 ✺
27.08.25	Great Britain - Lithuania	70:94 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
22.08.25	Lithuania - Iceland	96:83 ✺
20.08.25	Lithuania - Turkey	81:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
14.08.23	Lithuania - Finland	84:80
04.08.23	Finland - Lithuania	81:79
11.08.22	Lithuania - Finland	87:52
10.08.22	Lithuania - Finland	76:61
16.08.19	Finland - Lithuania	46:87
04.08.19	Lithuania - Finland	80:60
08.08.15	Lithuania - Finland	78:71

Finland - Lithuania: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide