Match Info

NBA

Date: 25 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Germany	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hungary	Sport 1
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	ESPN 1, ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NBA Global League Pass


	Golden State Warriors		Dallas Mavericks

	1	2
	1.31	3.6	Watch
	1.5	2.65
	1.3	3.5
	1.29	3.93	Watch
	1.3	3.55	Watch
	1.33	3.73
	1.34	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.5)	3.47 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 229.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Golden State Warriors
72.2%

Dallas Mavericks
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Golden State Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Golden State Warriors's performance.

Dallas Mavericks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dallas Mavericks might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Golden State Warriors than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Golden State Warriors that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dallas Mavericks than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dallas Mavericks could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Golden State will win (votes: 31 - 72.1%). Dallas will win (votes: 12 - 27.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Golden State: 58.7% – 85.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5, OT - Golden State (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -6.5, OT - Dallas (6.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Golden State Warriors will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Golden State (votes: 16 - 84.2%). Dallas (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 119:111

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
10. Butler J.	32. Flagg C.
23. Green D.	25. Washington P. J.
21. Post Q.	3. Davis A.
4. Moody M.	13. Marshall N.
30. Curry S.	9. Nembhard R.
Coaches
. Kerr S.	. Kidd J.

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Golden State won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Dallas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Golden State is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Golden State: Curry S. (Thigh Injury) Horford A. (Lower Back Injury)

There will not play in Dallas: Christie M. (Illness) Exum D. (Knee Injury) Irving K. (Knee Injury) Lively D. (Foot Injury) Powell D. (Illness)

There are questionable in Dallas: Thompson K. (Knee Injury) Washington P. J. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Golden State won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 2292:2228. (average 114.6:111.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Golden State won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1313:1220. (average 119.4:110.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Dallas Mavericks - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 36.23%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Golden State Warriors
NBA
22.12.25	Golden State Warriors - Orlando Magic	120:97 ✺
20.12.25	Golden State Warriors - Phoenix Suns	119:116 ✺
18.12.25	Phoenix Suns - Golden State Warriors	99:98 ✺
14.12.25	Portland Trail Blazers - Golden State Warriors	136:131 ✺
12.12.25	Golden State Warriors - Minnesota Timberwolves	120:127 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLL
- Dallas Mavericks
NBA
23.12.25	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	131:130 ✺
22.12.25	New Orleans Pelicans - Dallas Mavericks	119:113 ✺
20.12.25	Philadelphia 76ers - Dallas Mavericks	121:114 ✺
18.12.25	Dallas Mavericks - Detroit Pistons	116:114 OT ✺
15.12.25	Utah Jazz - Dallas Mavericks	140:133 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

NBA
23.02.25	Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks	126:102
12.02.25	Dallas Mavericks - Golden State Warriors	111:107
15.12.24	Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks	133:143
12.11.24	Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks	120:117
05.04.24	Dallas Mavericks - Golden State Warriors	108:106
02.04.24	Golden State Warriors - Dallas Mavericks	104:100
13.03.24	Dallas Mavericks - Golden State Warriors	109:99

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