Match Info

NBA

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	ESPN
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 2
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	beIN Sports 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NBA Global League Pass


	Dallas Mavericks		Denver Nuggets

	1	2
	1.87	1.95	Watch
	1.75	2.08	Watch
	1.84	2.05	Watch
	1.85	1.91
	1.74	2.24
	1.83	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.2)	2.04 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 224.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dallas Mavericks
52.9%

Denver Nuggets
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dallas Mavericks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dallas Mavericks's performance.

Denver Nuggets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Denver Nuggets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dallas Mavericks than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dallas Mavericks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denver Nuggets than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Denver Nuggets could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 211.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 2nd Half - Denver (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Dallas (1.78) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Denver Nuggets will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Denver Nuggets will win (18 of 18 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Dallas (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Denver (votes: 19 - 90.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 114:111

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Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 3.

In recent matches, Dallas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Denver is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Denver may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Dallas: Davis A. (Finger Injury) Exum D. (Knee Injury) Irving K. (Knee Injury) Lively D. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Denver: Bates T. (Foot Injury) Braun C. (Ankle Injury) Johnson C. (Knee Injury) Jokic N. (Knee Injury) Valanciunas J. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Dallas: Gafford D. (Ankle Injury) Washington P. J. (Ankle Injury) Williams B. (Illness)

There are questionable in Denver: Murray J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 2206:2235. (average 110.3:111.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1074:1058. (average 107.4:105.8).

Outrights of NBA for now

Denver Nuggets: 3.38% Dallas Mavericks: 0.47%

Last Results with these Odds

Denver Nuggets - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.7%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dallas Mavericks
NBA
12.01.26	Dallas Mavericks - Brooklyn Nets	113:105 ✺
10.01.26	Chicago Bulls - Dallas Mavericks	125:107 ✺
08.01.26	Utah Jazz - Dallas Mavericks	116:114 ✺
06.01.26	Sacramento Kings - Dallas Mavericks	98:100 ✺
03.01.26	Dallas Mavericks - Houston Rockets	110:104 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLWW
- Denver Nuggets
NBA
13.01.26	New Orleans Pelicans - Denver Nuggets	116:122 ✺
11.01.26	Denver Nuggets - Milwaukee Bucks	108:104 ✺
09.01.26	Denver Nuggets - Atlanta Hawks	87:110 ✺
07.01.26	Boston Celtics - Denver Nuggets	110:114 ✺
05.01.26	Philadelphia 76ers - Denver Nuggets	124:125 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NBA
23.12.25	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	131:130
01.12.25	Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks	121:131
14.01.25	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	99:118
12.01.25	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	101:112
22.11.24	Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks	120:123
10.11.24	Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks	122:120
17.03.24	Dallas Mavericks - Denver Nuggets	107:105

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