Match Info

NKL - Winners stage

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: „Žalgirio“ treniruočių centras (Kaunas)


	Kauno Žalgiris-2		Rytas 2

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.55
	1.36	2.89
	1.42	2.63	Watch
	1.4	2.7
	1.38	2.81
	1.33	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.4)	2.67 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 164.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris-2
65.9%

Rytas 2
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris-2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Rytas 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kauno Žalgiris-2 than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kauno Žalgiris-2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rytas 2 than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rytas 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Rytas 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 85:79

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bulanovas M. (C)	34. Adomaitis V.
8. Daubaris D.	8. Jokubauskas G.
4. Mikalauskas K.	22. Krizanauskas G.
10. Raupelis N.	19. Stuknys N.
7. Rudaitis J.	27. Vilkas A.
Substitutes
2. Adamson S.	99. Balkandzhiev K.
35. Brnovic M.	5. Liutkevicius M. (C)
15. Cerneckis G.	2. Pocius A.
55. Grunkis D.	23. Sirgedas E.
17. Lavrinovic T.	9. Snitka K.
16. Stombergas I.	10. Vilutis A.
3. Urbonavicius D.	45. Zukauskas D.
Coaches
. Kondratavicius R.	. Kadziulis G.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris-2 won 3.

Žalgiris-2 is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Rytas 2's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rytas 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Rytas 2 has had a series of away games.

Žalgiris-2 could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris-2 won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 608:588. (average 76:73.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris-2 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 323:280. (average 80.8:70).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
8	Zalgiris Kaunas 2	3	2	1	302:295	2
16	Rytas 2	3	0	3	240:265	0

Last Results with these Odds

Rytas 2 - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.96%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kauno Žalgiris-2 Basketball
Lietuvos NKL
24.02.26	Telšiai - Kauno Žalgiris-2	83:93 ✺
21.02.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Sūduva	83:81 ✺
19.02.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Mažeikiai	102:74 ✺
07.02.26	Kretinga - Kauno Žalgiris-2	64:104 ✺
05.02.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Sūduva	80:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWL
- Rytas 2
Lietuvos NKL
28.02.26	Vytis Šakiai - Rytas 2	94:87 ✺
26.02.26	Rytas 2 - Perlas Vilkaviškis	87:74 ✺
19.02.26	Sūduva - Rytas 2	95:66 ✺
07.02.26	Vilniaus Stekas - Rytas 2	62:80 ✺
05.02.26	Plunges Olimpas - Rytas 2	86:95 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
06.12.25	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Rytas 2	95:90 OT
13.11.25	Rytas 2 - Kauno Žalgiris-2	81:67
30.11.24	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Rytas 2	72:68
07.11.24	Rytas 2 - Kauno Žalgiris-2	81:69
23.11.23	Rytas 2 - Kauno Žalgiris-2	69:96
05.10.23	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Rytas 2	72:55
07.01.23	Rytas 2 - Kauno Žalgiris-2	77:53

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