Match Info

NKL

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Telsiu sporto arena (Telsiai)


	Mažeikiai		Kretinga

	1	2
	1.44	2.48	Watch
	1.49	2.4	Watch
	1.44	2.5
	1.46	2.53
	1.43	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.48)	2.51 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mažeikiai
63.4%

Kretinga
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Kretinga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kretinga than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Mažeikiai - Kretinga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mokseckas G. (C)	22. Kazakauskas J.
12. Motuzas M.	3. Kontrimas G.
14. Narusevicius E.	14. Macionis G.
3. Neal N.	55. Warren J.
4. Young C. K.	13. Zabita R. (C)
Substitutes
17. Bartasius Z.	8. Rudys T.
13. Karasov P.	5. Staniulis M.
5. Marquett Epps D.	23. Young J.
15. Mickus A.	7. Ziubrys J.
8. Rubinas D.
7. Stropus J.
0. Urbaitis D.
Coaches
. Kiltinavicius M.	. Mikalocius A.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mažeikiai won 5.

Mažeikiai is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kretinga has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mažeikiai will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mažeikiai won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 575:457. (average 82.1:65.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mažeikiai won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 260:184. (average 86.7:61.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
13	Mazeikiai	3	1	2	217:241	1
17	Kretinga	3	0	3	226:273	0

Last Results with these Odds

Kretinga - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 38.74%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Mažeikiai
Lietuvos NKL
20.12.25	Mažeikiai - Vilniaus Stekas	79:74 ✺
18.12.25	Perlas Vilkaviškis - Mažeikiai	59:79 ✺
13.12.25	Omega Tauras - Mažeikiai	88:104 ✺
11.12.25	Mažeikiai - Telšiai	75:60 ✺
06.12.25	Sūduva - Mažeikiai	94:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWWL
- BC Kretinga
Lietuvos NKL
20.12.25	Kretinga - Šilutė	81:93 ✺
18.12.25	Jurbarkas-Karys - Kretinga	80:76 ✺
13.12.25	Kretinga - Kėdainiai	90:85 ✺
11.12.25	Alytaus Alytus - Kretinga	83:87 ✺
04.12.25	Omega Tauras - Kretinga	88:90 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
30.10.25	Kretinga - Mažeikiai	81:84
07.01.23	Kretinga - Mažeikiai	63:77
05.11.22	Mažeikiai - Kretinga	86:82
12.03.22	Mažeikiai - Kretinga	101:47
27.01.22	Kretinga - Mažeikiai	52:81
25.11.21	Mažeikiai - Kretinga	73:55
28.10.21	Kretinga - Mažeikiai	77:73

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