Match Info

NKL - Winners stage

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Telsiu sporto arena (Telsiai)


	Mažeikiai		Telšiai

	1	2
			Watch
	1.58	2.15
	1.58	2.27
	1.56	2.24	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.56	2.27
	1.45	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.56)	2.21 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 168.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mažeikiai
58.8%

Telšiai
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

50.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Telšiai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mažeikiai that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Telšiai than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Telšiai could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mažeikiai - Telšiai Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5, OT - Telšiai (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Telšiai (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mokseckas G. (C)	13. Gecevicius M.
12. Motuzas M.	1. Kaminskis O. (C)
14. Narusevicius E.	11. Meistas V.
3. Neal N.	3. Razutis I.
4. Young C. K.	31. Small J.
Substitutes
2. Juodis G.	44. Balciunas T.
13. Karasov P.	90. Kaveckis L.
5. Marquett Epps D.	10. Kuzmanovic P.
15. Mickus A.	24. Martinkus I.
31. Rimsa T.	6. Pocius V.
8. Rubinas D.	22. Rasys D.
7. Stropus J.	4. Rimkus A.
Coaches
. Kiltinavicius M.	. Buskevics S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mažeikiai won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mažeikiai may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mažeikiai is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Mažeikiai will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mažeikiai won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 1407:1676. (average 70.4:83.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mažeikiai won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 589:634. (average 73.6:79.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
5	Telsiai	3	3	0	264:219	3
13	Mazeikiai	3	1	2	217:241	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Mažeikiai
Lietuvos NKL
28.02.26	Perlas Vilkaviškis - Mažeikiai	91:67 ✺
26.02.26	Mažeikiai - Kėdainiai	86:79 ✺
19.02.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Mažeikiai	102:74 ✺
07.02.26	Mažeikiai - Šilutė	102:83 ✺
03.02.26	Plunges Olimpas - Mažeikiai	79:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLWW
- KK Telšiai
Lietuvos NKL
28.02.26	Kėdainiai - Telšiai	75:77 ✺
24.02.26	Telšiai - Kauno Žalgiris-2	83:93 ✺
19.02.26	Vytis Šakiai - Telšiai	109:93 ✺
07.02.26	Telšiai - Jurbarkas-Karys	74:71 ✺
05.02.26	Šilutė - Telšiai	98:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
11.12.25	Mažeikiai - Telšiai	75:60
09.10.25	Telšiai - Mažeikiai	93:92
04.03.23	Telšiai - Mažeikiai	83:67
02.02.23	Mažeikiai - Telšiai	72:71
12.01.23	Mažeikiai - Telšiai	76:67
10.11.22	Telšiai - Mažeikiai	85:69
09.04.22	Telšiai - Mažeikiai	79:64

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