Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - Second round

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Dakar Arena (Dakar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
Sweden	DAZN


	Mali		Senegal

	1	2
	2.70	1.42	Watch
	2.50	1.50
	2.40	1.50
	2.68	1.42
	2.17	1.63	Watch
	2.60	1.40
	2.65	1.45
	2.60	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.25)	1.47 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 161.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mali
36.7%

Senegal
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Senegal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mali than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mali, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Senegal than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Senegal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mali - Senegal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:84

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Coulibaly M. Nairobi City Thunder	0. Badio B. Valencia
31. Diarra A. Virtus Bologna	16. Badji I. Shenzhen
35. Diarra M. Iowa Wolves	77. Diop P. M. Fougeres
10. Drame F. Santos	6. Gueye M. Chicago Bulls
4. Kanoute S. Orleans	24. Ndiaye M. Lyon-Villeurbanne
Substitutes
11. Ballo O. RSSB Tigers	5. Boissy J. Al Ahly
14. Drame H. Maktown Flyers	21. Diagne A. Forca Lleida
9. Haidara I. La Rochelle	33. Diallo B.
16. Keita M.	7. Fall-Faye I. Shanxi Zhongyu
20. Konate T.	11. Faye M. Paris
21. Sanogo A. Hapoel Holon	23. Ndiaye P.
8. Togo A. Stade Malien	31. Wade A.
Coaches
. Dicko A.	. Diop D.

Preview

Mali has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Senegal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mali won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 337:382. (average 67.4:76.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mali basketball
World Championship Basketball
29.08.26	D.R. Congo - Mali	76:101 ✺
27.08.26	Mali - Ivory Coast	77:83 ✺
05.07.26	Angola - Mali	88:74 ✺
04.07.26	Mali - Uganda	82:59 ✺
02.07.26	Egypt - Mali	70:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWW
- Senegal basketball
World Championship Basketball
29.08.26	Senegal - Angola	84:82 ✺
27.08.26	Egypt - Senegal	76:67 ✺
05.07.26	D.R. Congo - Senegal	63:89 ✺
04.07.26	Senegal - Madagascar	101:59 ✺
02.07.26	Ivory Coast - Senegal	72:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AfroBasket
23.08.25	Mali - Senegal	87:80
16.08.25	Senegal - Mali	84:70
Olympic Games - Basketball
17.08.23	Senegal - Mali	74:71
World Championship Basketball
23.02.19	Senegal - Mali	62:38
15.09.18	Mali - Senegal	71:82

Mali - Senegal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide