Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Winners stage

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Malvin (Montevideo)


	Malvín		Aguada

	1	2
			Watch
	1.88	1.73
	1.93	1.82
	1.93	1.76	Watch
	1.95	1.73
	1.99	1.71	Watch
	2.35	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.59)	1.69 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 169.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Malvín
45.7%

Aguada
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Malvín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Malvín's performance.

Aguada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aguada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Malvín than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aguada than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Malvín - Aguada Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Malvín (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guyton C.	5. Clark E.
14. Rodriguez N.	3. Osimani J.
33. Wachsmann K. (C)	13. Santiso J. (C)
11. Webster J.	23. Santos L.
27. Zekovic D.	8. Sims D.
Substitutes
18. Brun F.	33. Acuna V.
8. Espinosa E.	21. Barragan T.
15. Fernandez S.	1. Fernandez M.
30. Martinez N.	14. Gentile A.
34. Medina O.	6. Pereiras F.
13. Romero M.	10. Rodriguez J.
10. Souberbielle M.	24. Zuvich A.
Coaches
. Lopez P.	. Vadell D.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Malvín won 1.

Malvín is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aguada has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aguada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Malvín has had a series of away games.

Aguada could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Malvín won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 1616:1718. (average 80.8:85.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Malvín won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 621:640. (average 77.6:80).

Last Results with these Odds

Malvín - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.41%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Malvín
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
28.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Malvín	96:68 ✺
14.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Malvín	79:80 OT ✺
10.04.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Malvín	84:73 ✺
30.03.26	Malvín - Nacional	69:71 ✺
26.03.26	Aguada - Malvín	88:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL
- Atletico Aguada
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
28.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Aguada	88:60 ✺
25.04.26	Aguada - Nacional	101:82 ✺
17.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Aguada	103:95 ✺
14.04.26	Aguada - Hebraica y Macabi	101:100 ✺
11.04.26	Nacional - Aguada	101:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
26.03.26	Aguada - Malvín	88:64
07.01.26	Malvín - Aguada	89:72
24.10.25	Aguada - Malvín	94:82
12.05.25	Aguada - Malvín	111:99 OT
08.05.25	Malvín - Aguada	76:83
05.05.25	Aguada - Malvín	93:80
29.04.25	Malvín - Aguada	87:83

Malvín - Aguada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide