The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nacional 58.8%
Peñarol de Montevideo 41.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
50.8%
49.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49.4%
50.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Peñarol de Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-9.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+9.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nacional - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:82
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
33. Barrera B.
30. Cole N.
4. Feldeine J.
20. Ibarguen A.
23. Oglivie E.
8. Pomoli N.
10. Parodi L.
10. Serres E. (C)
24. Zinaich C.
25. Vescovi S.
Substitutes
8. Cabot M.
22. Bavosi F.
88. Galeano J.
35. Calimares S.
20. Gomez P.
21. Heilmann C.
3. Mendez A.
15. Lema N.
21. Prieto P. (C)
42. Rojas M.
22. Superi E.
1. Rosado O.
2. Taure J.
2. Washington J.
Coaches
. Ponce A.
. Garcia L.
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.
Nacional has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Peñarol has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1061:1106. (average 75.8:79).
Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 557:564. (average 79.6:80.6).
Last Results with these Odds
Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.2%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
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Barrera B. 
Cole N. 
Feldeine J. 
Ibarguen A. 
Oglivie E. 
Zinaich C. 
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