Match Info

Lega A - Round 15

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: PalaBarbuto (Naples)

Referee: Capotorto G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Italy	LBA TV
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4


	Napoli Basket		Olimpia Milano

	1	2
			Watch
	2.85	1.4
	2.75	1.43
	3.05	1.4
	2.77	1.47	Watch
	2.75	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.5)	1.42 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 171.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli Basket
33.4%

Olimpia Milano
66.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Olimpia Milano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli Basket than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Milano than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Napoli Basket - Olimpia Milano Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Napoli Basket will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Olimpia Milano will win (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli Basket: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli Basket (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Olimpia Milano (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +8.5, OT - Napoli Basket (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 172.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli Basket (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Olimpia Milano (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:88

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
8. Croswell E.	12. Brooks A.
1. Flagg S.	3. Ellis Q.
22. Gentile S.	16. LeDay Z.
3. Mitrou-Long N.	32. Nebo J.
25. Simms A.	31. Shields S.
Substitutes
45. Bolton R.	10. Bolmaro L.
30. Caruso G.	42. Dunston B.
5. El Amin I.	21. Flaccadori D.
10. Faggian L.	1. Mannion N.
14. Gloria M.	5. Pillepich F.
11. Saccoccia S.	17. Ricci G.
18. Treier K.	7. Tonut S.
Coaches
. Magro A.	. Poeta G.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli Basket won 3.

Napoli Basket has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Olimpia Milano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Olimpia Milano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Olimpia Milano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Napoli Basket won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 708:734. (average 78.7:81.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli Basket won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 322:309. (average 80.5:77.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
3	Basket Napoli	2	2	0	193:168	4
11	Olimpia Milano	2	1	1	155:154	2

Last Results with these Odds

Olimpia Milano - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.5%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Napoli Basket
Italian Lega A Basketball
03.01.26	Varese - Napoli Basket	84:80 ✺
28.12.25	Napoli Basket - Cantù	98:86 ✺
21.12.25	Venezia - Napoli Basket	106:96 ✺
14.12.25	Napoli Basket - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	102:76 ✺
07.12.25	Udine - Napoli Basket	78:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL
- Olimpia Milano
Euroleague
09.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Anadolu Efes Pilsen	87:74 ✺
06.01.26	Panathinaikos - Olimpia Milano	74:87 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
04.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Udine	85:84 ✺
Euroleague
02.01.26	Virtus Bologna - Olimpia Milano	97:85 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
29.12.25	Olimpia Milano - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	91:74 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
31.03.25	Napoli Basket - Olimpia Milano	95:87
26.10.24	Olimpia Milano - Napoli Basket	89:82
24.03.24	Olimpia Milano - Napoli Basket	86:84
Italian Cup Basketball
18.02.24	Olimpia Milano - Napoli Basket	72:77
Italian Lega A Basketball
08.10.23	Napoli Basket - Olimpia Milano	77:68
19.04.23	Olimpia Milano - Napoli Basket	88:76
08.01.23	Napoli Basket - Olimpia Milano	87:81 OT (75:75)

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