Match Info

LITHUANIA: NKL

Date: 15 December 2022, Thursday

Location: Palangos arena (Palanga)


	Palanga		Kretinga

	1	2
	2.2	1.57
	2.25	1.52
	2.39	1.44
	2	1.73
	2.65	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.59)	1.54 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 157.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palanga
40.1%

Kretinga
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palanga's form might have worsened.

Kretinga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kretinga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palanga than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kretinga than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kretinga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.9%	0%	96.1%

Palanga - Kretinga Predictions

Users Predictions: Kretinga will win (49 of 51 users predict this - 96.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 90.75% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 78:81

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Preview

Palanga is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Kretinga is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palanga could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palanga won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 376-342.

Including matches at home between the teams Palanga won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 158-148.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Palanga
Lietuvos NKL
10.12.22	Palanga - Kauno Atletas	77:81 ✺
08.12.22	Vilniaus Stekas - Palanga	91:80 ✺
03.12.22	Palanga - Sūduva	66:71 ✺
01.12.22	Vytis Šakiai - Palanga	93:76 ✺
26.11.22	Neptūnas - Palanga	75:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- BC Kretinga
Lietuvos NKL
10.12.22	Kretinga - Delikatesas Joniškis	80:86 ✺
08.12.22	Perlas Vilkaviškis - Kretinga	56:86 ✺
06.12.22	Kretinga - Vytis Šakiai	69:86 ✺
03.12.22	Kretinga - Rytas 2	97:103 ✺
01.12.22	Neptūnas - Kretinga	67:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
20.10.22	Kretinga - Palanga	55:68
21.02.22	Palanga - Kretinga	77:63
19.02.22	Kretinga - Palanga	72:74 OT (64:64)
27.11.21	Kretinga - Palanga	67:76
30.10.21	Palanga - Kretinga	81:85

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