Match Info

NBA

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Golden 1 Center (Sacramento, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	NBA Global League Pass


	Sacramento Kings		Miami Heat

	1	2
	2.45	1.59	Watch
	2.42	1.56
	2.49	1.59	Watch
	2.35	1.57
	2.52	1.61
	2.45	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.12)	1.58 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 238.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Kings
39.3%

Miami Heat
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Kings has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sacramento Kings's form might have worsened.

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miami Heat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Kings than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	0%	63.6%

Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sacramento will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Miami will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Miami: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento (votes: 1 - 50%). Miami (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5, OT - Sacramento (1.94) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Miami (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento (votes: 3 - 60%). Miami (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 117:121

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
10. DeRozan D.	9. Larsson P.
9. Achiuwa P.	22. Wiggins A.
42. Raynaud M.	13. Adebayo B.
8. LaVine Z.	24. Powell N.
18. Westbrook R.	45. Mitchell D.
Substitutes
32. Cardwell D.	0. Fontecchio S.
22. Carter D.	15. Gardner M.
5. Clifford N.	25. Jakucionis K.
23. Ellis K.	11. Jaquez Jr. J.
19. Eubanks D.	16. Johnson K.
7. McDermott D.	5. Jovic N.
0. Monk M.	12. Smith D.
11. Sabonis D.
20. Saric D.
17. Schroder D.
Coaches
. Christie D.	. Spoelstra E.

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sacramento won 3.

Sacramento is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Miami has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sacramento may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sacramento has had a series of home games.

Miami is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sacramento: Ellis K. (Knee Injury) Murray K. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Miami: Herro T. (Toe Injury) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Miami: Jaquez Jr. J. (Knee Injury) Mitchell D. (Shoulder Injury)

We predict that Sacramento will win today's game, with odds of 2.37.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sacramento won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 2123:2123. (average 106.2:106.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sacramento won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1134:1114. (average 103.1:101.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Sacramento Kings - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 44.79%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Miami Heat - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 55.21%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Kings
NBA
18.01.26	Sacramento Kings - Portland Trail Blazers	110:117 ✺
16.01.26	Sacramento Kings - Washington Wizards	128:115 ✺
14.01.26	Sacramento Kings - New York Knicks	112:101 ✺
12.01.26	Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Lakers	124:112 ✺
11.01.26	Sacramento Kings - Houston Rockets	111:98 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.9 LWWWW
- Miami Heat
NBA
19.01.26	Golden State Warriors - Miami Heat	135:112 ✺
17.01.26	Miami Heat - Oklahoma City Thunder	122:120 ✺
15.01.26	Miami Heat - Boston Celtics	114:119 ✺
13.01.26	Miami Heat - Phoenix Suns	127:121 ✺
11.01.26	Oklahoma City Thunder - Miami Heat	124:112 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

NBA
06.12.25	Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings	111:127
06.01.25	Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat	123:118 OT
04.11.24	Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings	110:111
California Classic Basketball
07.07.24	Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat	86:102
NBA
26.02.24	Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat	110:121
31.01.24	Miami Heat - Sacramento Kings	115:106
California Classic Basketball
05.07.23	Sacramento Kings - Miami Heat	95:83

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