Match Info

NBA

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	NBA Global League Pass


	Miami Heat		Indiana Pacers

	1	2
	1.37	3.2	Watch
	1.38	3.05
	1.39	3.21	Watch
	1.36	3.05	Watch
	1.41	3.2
	1.38	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.5)	3.14 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 231.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Miami Heat
69.4%

Indiana Pacers
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Miami Heat's performance.

Indiana Pacers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Indiana Pacers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Miami Heat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indiana Pacers than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Indiana Pacers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	0%	72.2%

Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Miami will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Indiana will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Indiana: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5, OT - Indiana (4.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -6, OT - Miami (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -4.5 - Miami (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5, 1st Half - Indiana (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Indiana Pacers will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Indiana (votes: 9 - 81.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 120:113

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
9. Larsson P.	23. Nesmith A.
22. Wiggins A.	43. Siakam P.
7. Ware K.	32. Huff J.
24. Powell N.	00. Mathurin B.
45. Mitchell D.	2. Nembhard A.
Coaches
. Spoelstra E.	. Carlisle R.

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miami won 2.

Recent performances by Miami have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Indiana is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Miami may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Miami has had a series of away games.

In this match, Miami is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Miami: Herro T. (Toe Injury) Rozier T. (Suspended)

There will not play in Indiana: Haliburton T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Jackson I. (Concussion) Nesmith A. (Knee Injury) Sheppard B. (Calf Injury) Toppin O. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Miami: Adebayo B. (Back Injury) Johnson K. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Miami won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 2239:2213. (average 112:110.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Miami won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1299:1290. (average 118.1:117.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Indiana Pacers - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.59%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami Heat
NBA
26.12.25	Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat	111:126 ✺
23.12.25	Miami Heat - Toronto Raptors	91:112 ✺
21.12.25	New York Knicks - Miami Heat	132:125 ✺
19.12.25	Boston Celtics - Miami Heat	129:116 ✺
18.12.25	Brooklyn Nets - Miami Heat	95:106 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLLW
- Indiana Pacers
NBA
26.12.25	Indiana Pacers - Boston Celtics	122:140 ✺
23.12.25	Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks	94:111 ✺
22.12.25	Boston Celtics - Indiana Pacers	103:95 ✺
20.12.25	New Orleans Pelicans - Indiana Pacers	128:109 ✺
18.12.25	Indiana Pacers - New York Knicks	113:114 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NBA
28.02.25	Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers	125:120
02.01.25	Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers	115:128
17.11.24	Indiana Pacers - Miami Heat	119:110
15.11.24	Indiana Pacers - Miami Heat	111:124
07.04.24	Indiana Pacers - Miami Heat	117:115
02.12.23	Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers	129:144
30.11.23	Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers	142:132

Upcoming Matches