Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 20

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Hala Sportowa Stal (Ostrow Wielkopolski)

Referee: Matuszewska E. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4


	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski		Legia Warsaw

	1	2
	2.55	1.48
	2.35	1.48	Watch
	2.41	1.57
	2.27	1.58	Watch
	2.38	1.5
	2.4	1.54
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.6)	1.52 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 164.25

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski
38.7%

Legia Warsaw
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

64.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	0%	11.8%

Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Stal Ostrów will win (votes: 15 - 88.2%). Legia will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Ostrów: 72.9% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Gibson T.	0. Graves J.
9. Golebiowski D. (C)	3. Pluta A.
13. Jackson Q.	42. Ponsar C.
22. Laster D.	15. Silins O.
5. Mejeris M.	25. Thompson R.
Substitutes
10. Brzovic A.	6. Boltuc M.
8. Czoska N.	7. Brewton D.
55. Pluta M.	40. Hunter S.
23. Rutecki J.	23. Kolenda M. (C)
2. Sakota L.	5. Tomaszewski W.
11. Smektala A.	32. Wilczek M.
12. Waniak A.
Coaches
. Urban A.	. Rannula H.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Ostrów won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Stal Ostrów may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Legia has had a series of away games.

In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stal Ostrów won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1707:1619. (average 85.4:81).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Ostrów won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 743:727. (average 82.6:80.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
4	Legia	2	1	1	166:180	3
9	Ostrow Wielkopolski	1	1	0	84:79	2

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 64.84%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski
Polish Basket Liga
05.02.26	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	81:76 ✺
30.01.26	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	91:84 ✺
22.01.26	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Asseco Prokom Gdynia	84:82 ✺
18.01.26	GTK Gliwice - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	73:76 ✺
11.01.26	Górnik Wałbrzych - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	80:72 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWL
- Legia Warsaw Basketball
Polish Basket Liga
08.02.26	Czarni Słupsk - Legia Warsaw	87:82 ✺
31.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Toruń	82:81 ✺
23.01.26	Start Lublin - Legia Warsaw	52:84 ✺
18.01.26	MOSiR Krosno - Legia Warsaw	87:94 ✺
11.01.26	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	83:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
25.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	98:89
23.03.25	Legia Warsaw - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	80:79
16.11.24	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Legia Warsaw	75:90
Polish Cup Basketball
18.02.24	Legia Warsaw - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	94:71
Polish Basket Liga
04.02.24	Legia Warsaw - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	88:96
21.10.23	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Legia Warsaw	71:53
06.06.23	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Legia Warsaw	85:88

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