Match Info

NCAA

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Texas State Bobcats		Appalachian State Mountaineers

	1	2
	1.86	1.86
	1.92	1.8
	1.97	1.88
	1.89	1.83	Watch
	1.91	1.85
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.96)	1.84 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 133.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Texas State Bobcats
49.3%

Appalachian State Mountaineers
50.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.5%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Texas State Bobcats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Appalachian State Mountaineers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Texas State Bobcats than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Texas State Bobcats that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Appalachian State Mountaineers than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Appalachian State Mountaineers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers Predictions

Users Predictions: Texas State Bobcats will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Texas State Bobcats will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 68:66

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Texas State won 2.

Texas State is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Appalachian State's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Texas State won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1208:1190. (average 67.1:66.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Texas State won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 695:643. (average 69.5:64.3).

Outrights of NCAA College Basketball for now

Appalachian State: 0.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Texas State Bobcats - the odds 1.96 are the expected chance of winning is 47.54%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Texas State Bobcats basketball
NCAA College Basketball
21.02.26	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin` Cajuns - Texas State Bobcats	67:54 ✺
19.02.26	South Alabama Jaguars - Texas State Bobcats	82:90 OT ✺
14.02.26	Texas State Bobcats - Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	95:84 ✺
11.02.26	Texas State Bobcats - Troy Trojans	74:62 ✺
07.02.26	Texas State Bobcats - Western Michigan Broncos	77:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWW
- Appalachian State Mountaineers basketball
NCAA College Basketball
21.02.26	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Georgia Southern Eagles	89:74 ✺
19.02.26	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Marshall Thundering Herd	93:94 ✺
14.02.26	James Madison Dukes - Appalachian State Mountaineers	69:58 ✺
11.02.26	Georgia Southern Eagles - Appalachian State Mountaineers	65:81 ✺
07.02.26	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Eastern Michigan Eagles	65:60 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
04.01.25	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Texas State Bobcats	72:61
07.02.24	Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers	63:56
16.02.23	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Texas State Bobcats	82:75
03.02.22	Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers	68:66
06.03.21	Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers	73:76 OT (65:65)
11.03.20	Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers	85:68
08.02.20	Appalachian State Mountaineers - Texas State Bobcats	60:57

Texas State Bobcats - Appalachian State Mountaineers