Match Info

NCAA

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	UC San Diego Tritons		Cal Poly Mustangs

	1	2
	1.44	2.7
	1.45	2.6
	1.52	2.64
	1.5	2.46	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.45	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.37)	2.61 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 158.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UC San Diego Tritons
64%

Cal Poly Mustangs
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UC San Diego Tritons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Cal Poly Mustangs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UC San Diego Tritons than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cal Poly Mustangs than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:77

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UC San Diego won 4.

UC San Diego is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cal Poly has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UC San Diego is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, UC San Diego won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 701:617. (average 70.1:61.7).

Including home matches between the teams, UC San Diego won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 322:278. (average 64.4:55.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UC San Diego Tritons basketball
NCAA College Basketball
07.03.26	UC Santa Barbara Gauchos - UC San Diego Tritons	63:64 ✺
05.03.26	Cal State Fullerton Titans - UC San Diego Tritons	75:71 ✺
28.02.26	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	80:64 ✺
26.02.26	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	84:72 ✺
21.02.26	UC Irvine Anteaters - UC San Diego Tritons	69:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWWW
- Cal Poly Mustangs basketball
NCAA College Basketball
07.03.26	Cal Poly Mustangs - Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners	108:76 ✺
05.03.26	UC Irvine Anteaters - Cal Poly Mustangs	107:85 ✺
28.02.26	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	80:64 ✺
26.02.26	Cal Poly Mustangs - Long Beach State 49ers	102:92 ✺
19.02.26	Hawaii Warriors - Cal Poly Mustangs	75:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
28.02.26	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	80:64
01.01.26	Cal Poly Mustangs - UC San Diego Tritons	67:65
20.02.25	Cal Poly Mustangs - UC San Diego Tritons	67:81
09.01.25	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	95:68
09.03.24	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	92:87
13.01.24	Cal Poly Mustangs - UC San Diego Tritons	61:86
02.03.23	UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs	Canceled

UC San Diego Tritons - Cal Poly Mustangs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide