Match Info

Euroleague - Round 6

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Segafredo Arena (Bologna) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Obrknezevic U. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 8
Germany	20:30	Magenta Sport
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 2
Serbia	20:30	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	20:30	SportKlub 5
International	18:30	EuroLeague TV


	Virtus Bologna		Baskonia

	1	2
	1.48	2.45	Watch
	1.45	2.75
	1.52	2.55
	1.48	2.75
	1.56	2.58	Watch
	1.46	2.7
	1.49	2.73	Watch
	1.52	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.6)	2.63 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 179.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Virtus Bologna
63.8%

Baskonia
36.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.2%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Virtus Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Baskonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Bologna than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Virtus Bologna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baskonia than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baskonia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Virtus Bologna - Baskonia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Virtus Bologna (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baskonia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 172.5, OT - over (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Virtus Bologna will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:88

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Alston Jr. D.	5. Duarte C.
2. Carr M.	35. Faried K.
35. Diouf M.	8. Sedekerskis T.
34. Klintman B.	2. Simmons K.
8. Moore W.	3. Stewart D.J.
Substitutes
0. Bello R.	12. Baugh D.
31. Diarra A.	25. Frisch C.
9. Edwards K.	6. Joksimovic S.
24. Ferrari F.	7. Kurucs R.
1. Frazier T.	1. Lawson A.
23. Hackett D.	21. Marcio
3. Kokila K.	10. Spagnolo M.
Coaches
. Mumbru A.	. Galbiati P.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Virtus Bologna won 2.

Virtus Bologna has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Baskonia has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Baskonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Baskonia has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Virtus Bologna is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Virtus Bologna has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 732:762 (averaging 81.3:84.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Virtus Bologna against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 327:334 goals (averaging 81.8:83.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	L
13	Virtus Bologna	9	4	5	781:802
20	Baskonia	9	1	8	748:847

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Virtus Bologna: 1.07%

Last Results with these Odds

Baskonia - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.79%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Virtus Bologna
Euroleague
14.10.26	Paris - Virtus Bologna	94:96 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
11.10.26	Venezia - Virtus Bologna	86:93 ✺
Euroleague
08.10.26	Bayern München - Virtus Bologna	87:94 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
04.10.26	Virtus Bologna - Maxima Roma	98:89 ✺
Euroleague
01.10.26	Virtus Bologna - Olympiacos Piraeus	96:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 WWWWW
- Saski Baskonia
Euroleague
13.10.26	Baskonia - Dubai	79:93 ✺
Spanish ACB League
11.10.26	Baskonia - Joventut Badalona	93:73 ✺
Euroleague
09.10.26	Baskonia - Beşiktaş	84:92 ✺
Spanish ACB League
04.10.26	Baskonia - Girona	118:78 ✺
Euroleague
02.10.26	Baskonia - Olimpia Milano	87:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
10.04.26	Virtus Bologna - Baskonia	72:82
06.11.25	Baskonia - Virtus Bologna	87:76
10.01.25	Virtus Bologna - Baskonia	76:74
12.12.24	Baskonia - Virtus Bologna	81:82
19.04.24	Baskonia - Virtus Bologna	89:77
12.04.24	Virtus Bologna - Baskonia	91:95
14.12.23	Baskonia - Virtus Bologna	81:91

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