Match Info

Lega A - Round 30

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Segafredo Arena (Bologna)

Referee: Lucotti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LBA TV


	Virtus Bologna		Varese

	1	2
			Watch
	1.19	4.25	Watch
	1.25	4.12
	1.24	3.86	Watch
	1.2	4.5
	1.25	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.27)	4.17 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Virtus Bologna
77.3%

Varese
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Virtus Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Varese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Virtus Bologna - Varese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Diouf M.	2. Alviti D.
3. Edwards C.	11. Iroegbu I.
23. Hackett D.	4. Moore T.
7. Niang S.	8. Nkamhoua O.
1. Vildoza L.	15. Renfro N.
Substitutes
45. Akele N.	19. Bergamin M.
21. Alston Jr. D.	55. Freeman A.
31. Diarra A.	34. Ladurner M.
24. Ferrari F.	13. Librizzi M.
34. Jallow K.	7. N'Guessan E.
6. Pajola A.	1. Stewart C.
99. Yago	5. Villa M.
Coaches
. Jakovljevic N.	. Kastritis I.

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Virtus Bologna won 4.

Virtus Bologna is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Varese has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Varese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Virtus Bologna is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Virtus Bologna won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1758:1565. (average 87.9:78.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Virtus Bologna won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 901:733. (average 90.1:73.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
2	Virtus Bologna	3	3	0	281:244	6
8	Varese	3	2	1	239:251	4

Last Results with these Odds

Virtus Bologna - the odds 1.27 are the expected chance of winning is 74.78%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Virtus Bologna
Italian Lega A Basketball
03.05.26	Dinamo Sassari - Virtus Bologna	73:80 ✺
26.04.26	Virtus Bologna - Trieste	95:81 ✺
19.04.26	Derthona Basket Tortona - Virtus Bologna	69:74 ✺
Euroleague
16.04.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Virtus Bologna	85:89 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
13.04.26	Virtus Bologna - Cantù	89:79 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWWWW
- Pallacanestro Varese
Italian Lega A Basketball
26.04.26	Varese - Vanoli-Braga Cremona	84:75 ✺
19.04.26	Cantù - Varese	100:96 ✺
12.04.26	Varese - Dinamo Sassari	91:90 ✺
04.04.26	Trieste - Varese	90:89 ✺
28.03.26	Varese - Derthona Basket Tortona	97:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
04.11.25	Varese - Virtus Bologna	77:83
27.04.25	Virtus Bologna - Varese	104:67
10.11.24	Varese - Virtus Bologna	104:95
21.01.24	Varese - Virtus Bologna	69:81
08.10.23	Virtus Bologna - Varese	115:84
07.05.23	Virtus Bologna - Varese	98:82
04.12.22	Varese - Virtus Bologna	100:108

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