Match Info

European Tour 4 - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Zenith (Munich)


	Dave Chisnall		Michael Smith

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.86	1.78
	1.89	1.77	Watch
	2	1.8
	1.9	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.04)	1.81 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dave Chisnall
48.6%

Michael Smith
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dave Chisnall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Michael Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dave Chisnall than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dave Chisnall that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Smith than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dave Chisnall - Michael Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:6

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Preview

Chisnall is ranked World Ranking: 24. Smith is ranked World Ranking: 31.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chisnall won 1.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Smith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Smith will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Chisnall won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:60. (average 5.3:7.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Dave Chisnall - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 44.86%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dave Chisnall
Darts
21.03.26	Chris Dobey - Dave Chisnall	6:3 ✺
20.03.26	Dave Chisnall - Thibault Tricole	6:2 ✺
14.03.26	Ross Smith - Dave Chisnall	6:4 ✺
13.03.26	Dave Chisnall - Jeffrey de Zwaan	6:5 ✺
07.03.26	Luke Humphries - Dave Chisnall	10:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWL
- Michael Smith
Darts
04.04.26	Michael Smith - James Hurrell	6:2 ✺
20.03.26	Michael Smith - Michael Mansell	3:6 ✺
07.03.26	Ryan Searle - Michael Smith	10:9 ✺
06.03.26	Michael Smith - Leon Weber	10:8 ✺
22.02.26	Chris Dobey - Michael Smith	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
24.10.24	Dave Chisnall - Michael Smith	0:6
13.03.22	Michael Smith - Dave Chisnall	6:1 best of 11 legs
30.01.22	Dave Chisnall - Michael Smith	10:8 best of 19 legs
04.11.18	Michael Smith - Dave Chisnall	10:5 best of 19 legs
14.10.18	Michael Smith - Dave Chisnall	6:2 best of 11 legs
24.07.18	Dave Chisnall - Michael Smith	11:8 best of 21 legs
18.02.16	Dave Chisnall - Michael Smith	6:6 best of 12 legs

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