Match Info

European Tour 13 - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Jakobshalle (Basel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Net4+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Jonny Clayton		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.61	2.09	Watch
	1.7	2.09
	1.71	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.73)	2.1 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jonny Clayton
55.6%

Nathan Aspinall
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jonny Clayton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonny Clayton than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jonny Clayton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nathan Aspinall could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Clayton is ranked World Ranking: 6. Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Clayton won 2.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Clayton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Clayton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 55:78. (average 5:7.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Jonny Clayton - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.55%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.45%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jonny Clayton
Darts
13.09.25	Luke Littler - Jonny Clayton	6:4 ✺
13.09.25	Jonny Clayton - Jason Brandon	6:0 ✺
07.09.25	Gerwyn Price - Jonny Clayton	6:4 ✺
06.09.25	Jonny Clayton - Ryan Joyce	6:2 ✺
30.08.25	Jonny Clayton - Mario Vandenbogaerde	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
26.09.25	Nathan Aspinall - Andreas Toft-Jorgensen	6:0 ✺
20.09.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:4 ✺
19.09.25	Nathan Aspinall - Levente Sarai	6:0 ✺
13.09.25	Nathan Aspinall - Dave Chisnall	2:6 ✺
06.09.25	James Wade - Nathan Aspinall	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
13.04.24	Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall	2:6
23.07.23	Nathan Aspinall - Jonny Clayton	18:6
18.05.23	Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall	1:6
06.04.23	Nathan Aspinall - Jonny Clayton	4:6
23.02.23	Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall	6:4
07.05.21	Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall	8:6 best of 14 legs
20.04.21	Nathan Aspinall - Jonny Clayton	6:6 best of 12 legs

Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide